Worst Case Scenario...

GFS weather map for possible late season winter storm. Click to enlarge

...How morbid to start off a blog with "Worst Case Scenario, right?" Unfortunately, when it comes to weather, you always have to be prepared for the worst case scenario. Though I don't think we will be having a big snowstorm for the next Thursday timeframe, one of the long range computer models has hinted at that possibility. The graphic above is one of the many computer model representations that we use in order to determine what the weather will be down the road. This particular model is called the GFS or "Global Forecast System."

Although it is not always accurate 5 or so days out, I have come to rely on it for picking up signatures of possible winter storms. For example, the storm that will be passing to our east today (and giving one heck of a snowstorm to Canada) was forecast to develop by this model about 10 days in advance! However, these computer models of the atmosphere have their flaws as well. They can be wrong in their location in predicting the storm, or wrong in the storms intensity, or wrong in that a storm may not develop at all! Whew! So many possibilities..... That's where we come in.

So what does all this technical mumbo-jumbo mean for us? Well, it looks like a storm will develop around sometime next Thursday, and affect the area with either rain or wet snow. If the storms actual track is further south and east than forecast, it could be more of a snow event. If the storm tracks further west and north, bringing with it some warmer air, we could just see rain. A difference of 50 miles makes all the difference in the world with these winter storms, and a 50 mile error 5 days in advance is a drop in the bucket for the computer models, but makes a big difference for us.

We will continue to monitor the different computer model outputs, and have daily updates for you on WUML 91.5 FM.

In the meantime, the seasonably cold weather will continue, with clouds increasing for your Saturday compliments of the strong ocean storm passing to our east. We may see a sprinkle or flurry from it, but not much more. On the backside of this storm, winds will turn NW and be rather gusty for Easter Sunday, ushering in some even cooler air.

Again, if you have any questions, click on my name to the right and send me an email. Any comments, feel free to leave them below!

Make sure to tune in 7-9am Monday-Thursday for updates with Will Sheridan, and I will have your complete forecast (and possibly more) every Friday morning on Campus Buzz from 9-10 am on WUML Lowell 91.5 FM.

For all those celebrating, have a great Easter!