How Do Those Things Form?
(scroll down for your Lowell weather update)

As promised, here is my Part 2 on tornadoes. This is national severe weather safety week, so I felt it might be appropriate to talk about what actually causes a tornado. Curious? Read on....

shot of a very wide tornado.... they can sometimes be up to a mile in diameter!

This is a "wall cloud" in a thunderstorm, associated with a strong, rotating updraft. These structures are usually a precursor to tornadoes - if you see one approaching, take cover!

Another large tornado. Note the dust and debris at the bottom of the funnel.

Tornadoes frequently "rope out" or become elongated and twisted before dissipating. The funnel size can decrease from hundreds of yards to only a few feet during this stage. Although it doesn't look as formidable as some of the other twisters above, they can still be deadly.

So how does it all start?

The sun warms the grounds surface, creating plumes of hot air or thermals which rise through the colder atmosphere. As the plume of air cools, the water vapor in it condenses, forming clouds. Often, meteorologists refer to air "parcels," which is akin to thinking of the air as if it were in a balloon, and following that balloon through the atmosphere. It's easier to calculate and conceptualize than if we assume all air simply dispersed as it rose from the ground.

If atmospheric conditions are unstable enough, a tornadic thunderstorm may develop. If the rising parcel of air as described above remains warmer than the surrounding air, it will continue to rise, because warm air is less dense (and therefore lighter) than cold air. With the continued rising, cloud tops may reach 70,000 feet high in the atmosphere.

Strong thunderstorms like the one above are usually caused by approaching cold fronts. The cold, dense air rushing into the warmer, moister air, causes the warm air ahead of the front to rise, resulting in convective clouds and thunderstorms.



So what specifically causes a tornado?

There is still research being done regarding tornado formation, but the best known theory is that WIND SHEAR is the major component in creating tornadoes. So what's wind shear? Wind shear is when winds do not blow uniformly in one direction at the same speed. Wind shear can occur in a couple of different ways - the first, is when winds are blowing in the same direction, but at different speeds (refer to diagram below). The second is when winds are blowing at the same speeds, but with different directions with height (for example, winds near the ground might be blowing from the Southwest, but may be blowing from the North higher up in the atmosphere). The third form of wind shear is a messy combo of the two - Winds can blow at different speeds, at different directions, at different heights. Following along so far? Then continue on below....

The varying wind speeds can cause a rotating cylinder of air in the atmosphere. For example, what would happen if you pushed on the top of a ball? It would roll. The shearing mechanism above works in the same way. The winds are stronger higher up than they are closer to the ground, causes the air to "roll" in a cylinder.


Now I'll put it all together for you

(or try anyway!)

Clouds have those "thermals" as I mentioned above. They are usually referred to as updrafts in thunderstorms, as they are much stronger. Air can rise up into the storm at speeds of 60 mph or more!

Once that updraft rushes up into the atmosphere and hits that rolling cylinder of air, it causes the tornado. How, you ask? What would happen if you were holding a long piece of ribbon horizontally just above the floor, and then someone else poked the center of that ribbon with their finger? It wouldn't stay flat, would it. The harder your friend pokes the ribbon, the taller the ribbon will become, until eventually the ribbon is no longer horizontal, but vertical!

That's what happens with the tornado. The rapidly rising air in the updraft distorts the horizontally rolling cylinder of air until it is no longer parallel to the ground high up in the air, but perpendicular to it, extending from the cloud to the ground's surface. And when that happens, you have the birth of a tornado. Look out!

So, there's my attempt to explain a pretty technical process. Still have questions? Shoot me an email..... I'll be more than happy to respond.

And now for Lowell Weather


High pressure over the region today will slide east as a storm system currently centered over Missouri tracks our way for Friday. That means enjoy today, because tomorrow looks to be a wet one with rain during the day, with a possible embedded thunderstorm and highs in the lower 50s. Yet another system looks to approach the area Saturday with some more showers, although it will be warmer with highs in the mid 60s.

There are currently flood watches in effect for most of New Hampshire and Maine because of these systems. Although the probably won't dump a ton of water over New England, major rivers are still high after the last Nor'easter. It won't take too much rain to see them rise again. So for people in Lowell, keep an eye on the Merrimack, as it may begin to rise yet again this weekend as the runoff from smaller streams drains into the river system.

At this time, it doesn't look to be anything close to another Mother's Day flooding event, just a rise of a couple feet or so. If this changes, the WUML weather team will be sure to let you know.

And finally, for all Umass Lowell Students, tomorrow is the spring carnival! If you plan on attending, you may want to wear a waterproof coat. Also, feel free to stop by the WUML 91.5 FM booth, as we will be broadcasting LIVE all day from the carnival. Ask a weather question, say hello, or meet the crew of the Campus Buzz News Team.

Until next time, this Umass Lowell Student Meteorologist John Webster.

Spring has Sprung.... into Summer? If you were lucky on Monday or even today, you were doing the above....

Remember this? It wasn't that long ago.... It's officially time to put away your shovels, and laugh at the person in this picture. Don't laugh too hard though... it could be you in 9 months.

Spring in New England.... In my opinion, our most volatile season. Sure, winter has blizzards, summer has the thunderstorms, and autumn has those cold snaps that leave frost on the pumpkin, but Spring takes the cake. Last week at this time we were recovering from a major Nor'easter, a historical flooding event in Lowell, and we were seeing rain mixed with snow at times with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Yesterday saw temperatures topping out around 87-88 in our area, blazing sun, gusty SW winds, and Fire Danger warnings. We were also about 45 degrees warmer than last week! Boston hit a new record high of 86, breaking the record of 85 set all the way back in 1905. No slow transitions here...we went from winter to summer without any imbetween. Monday was definitely a beach day....except for those of us sitting in hot, sweaty, non-air conditioned classrooms, where it was more of a "sauna day," sans towel and relaxation.....

A cool front slipped through early this morning, and our highs today maxed out around 72. Cool by yesterday's standards, but still above average. Don't get too spoiled.

The remainder of the week will see a slow decline back to reality. Temeratures should rise into the mid-60s for your Wednesday and Thursday with partly cloudy conditions, and by Friday the weather looks to be mostly cloudy with the chance of a shower, and highs only in the mid to upper 50s. I know, I know. Like I said, spring is pretty volatile here in New England.

Weather Headlines

This week, April 23-27, is severe weather safety awareness week in southern New England. Read up about tornado safety here:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/productDisplay.php?product=BOSPNSBOX&version=0

We've already talked a little about tornadoes, and next time we can examine the structure of these storms. I've already gotten some positive feedback from you readers.... Thank you, and keep it coming!

In WUML 91.5 FM "Campus Buzz" news, we will be airing LIVE from SPRING CARNIVAL this Friday at 11am on the Umass Lowell South Campus. Feel free to stop by, say hi, or just watch us broadcasting live. I will also be at the American Meteorological Society (AMS) booth, so feel free to visit one, or both.

Until next time, this is Umass Lowell Student Meteorologist John Webster.

We're Not in Kansas Anymore Toto...... Tornado as seen from an aircraft - pretty cool huh? Click to enlarge.

Map of United States tornadoes - each red dot represents a tornado report. Click to enlarge.

Diagram of a thunderstorm and tornado - click to enlarge .

What does a tornado look like on radar? A "hook" echo like the one directly above Florence, AL as seen in the radar capture above. Click to enlarge.

Tornadoes, especially in the Great Plains, can be monsters like the one above - up to a mile wide with winds in excess of 300 mph!

If you guessed it after reading the last post, give yourself a big pat on the back. Yes, it is the still somewhat mysterious tornado that has been known to defeather chickens in its path and rain frogs (among other strange things).

Since things are pretty quiet (and beautiful) in the weather department, I figured now would be a good time to explore one of nature's most mysterious weather phenomena - the tornado.

Spring in the United States is prime tornado season - especially in the area of the country known as "Tornado Alley" extending from northern Texas, up through Oklahoma, and Nebraska. This region of the continent is frequently the battleground between warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air migrating south from the upper-Midwest. This giant clash of airmasses is the breeding ground for severe thunderstorm outbreaks and possible tornadoes.

If you look at the map above with all the red dots, you can see that tornadoes are most prevalent in the eastern half of the nation. The Rocky Mountains in the west act as a sort of "Tornado Divide", and anything east of there is susceptible to the deadly tornado. On the west coast, tornadoes are relatively infrequent, as shown by the lack of red dots.

Why such a difference? The prevailing flow in the continental United States is from West to East. Most of the weather affecting the West coast of the U.S. has its origins over the Pacific Ocean, where the air is cool and stable. The Rocky Mountains also act as a blocking mechanism, preventing any warm moist Gulf air from penetrating west, while at the same time shunting any cold dry air from Canada to the east. For that reason, the West Coast is pretty safe, but the central United State is the MOST ACTIVELY TORNADIC REGION IN THE WORLD!!! Yup, that's right folks, if you want to see a tornado, your best bet over the entire globe is to book a flight to Oklahoma or one of the other states in "Tornado Alley."

So how does a tornado de-feather chickens? Some folk-lore claims the winds are so strong that they just blow the feathers right off the poor chickens. Another, more scientific theory, is that when a chicken feels threatened, its feathers become easily removable as a defense mechanism (for example, a hungry coyote attacking a chicken would be left with only a mouthful of feathers!) This biological response to danger allows the strong winds of the tornado to whip away the feathers of the bird when the storm approaches.

How about raining frogs? Tornadoes have been known to pass over bodies of water, and the suction power of the vortex does the rest. Fish, tadpoles, even frogs, have been picked up by tornadoes and then rained down over inland areas as the storm dissipated. Imagine waking up on a Sunday morning to find yourself sucked out of your home and thoudsands of feet up into the sky, only to be unceremoniously dropped a few minutes later. Talk about a way to go.....

Next time, if the weather is still quiet, we will explore how a tornado actually FORMS. What mechanisms are needed to spawn these destructive twisters? Check back for the details.....

Turning back to New England Weather, enjoy today and tomorrow because you know it couldn't last. Monday looks to be almost summerlike, with temperatures topping (drumroll please) 80 DEGREES in most places!

A cold front looks to spoil the fun thereafter for the rest of the week, dropping our temperatures to more seasonable 50s and 60s.

For the up-to-date weather forecast, tune in every Monday - Thursday with Will Sheridan on Sunrise starting at 7 am, and myself every Friday starting at 9am on Campus Buzz WUML Lowell 91.5 FM.

Until next time, this is Umass Lowell Student Meteorologist John Webster. Enjoy the great weather!

Goodbye Merrimack, Hello Sunshine!!!


The Merrimack overflowing its banks in Chelmsford from last week's storm left some people without a ride....

Last Tuesday saw the Merrimack River at Lowell cresting at its 5th highest level ever at 58.09 feet less than a year after the historic Mother's Day flooding. Roads in Lowell were closed due the the river flooding, making in town trips a bit of a challenge in some areas.

Although the Merrimack is still in flood stage, it is forecast to fall below flood levels this weekend. Looks like we bumped #5 outta there after this pasts weeks flooding. It could have been worse though- check out the top historical crest below - almost 10 FEET higher than what we saw last week....

Historical Crests
(1) 68.40 ft on 03/20/1936
(2) 60.60 ft on 04/23/1852
(3) 60.57 ft on 09/23/1938
(4) 58.84 ft on 05/15/2006
(5) 57.16 ft on 04/07/1987

Some good news for a change....Absolutely Gorgeous weather will be on tap for the next few days. This weekend may be one of the "Top Ten" of the year - Sunny, Warm, light winds, with highs approaching 70 each day. Doesn't get much better than that.....

Unless of course you like 80, and we will be approaching that by Monday of next week. So dig back deep into your closet for those summer clothes, and dust off your shorts, because they may come in handy for early next week before a cold front slides through and cuts down on our temperatures.

Next posting, I'll be discussing something that's very important this time of year, especially to people in the heartland of the nation. Here's a hint: What weather phenomenon has been known to de-feather chickens, rain frogs, and has its own "alley" named after it?

Until then, this is Umass Lowell Student Meteorologist John Webster wishing you a great weekend!

a quick update....

MERRIMACK RIVER UNDERGOING MODERATE TO SERIOUS FLOODING

UMASS LOWELL IS CLOSED TODAY 4.17 DUE TO FLOODING

Serious Flooding?



A quick update - the Hydrologic Prediction Center (a branch of NOAA) has issued the following statement regarding the Merrimack in Lowell. The
chart above is the depth of the Merrimack at Lowell (click to enlarge). The dark blue line is the recorded depth- the green dashed line is the forecast depth.


The river has risen 8 FEET since the storm began!!!!

Note that the actual depth is already HIGHER than the forecast depth.

THIS IS A SERIOUS FLOOD EVENT. ALL PERSONS ALONG THE MERRIMACK RIVER SHOULD FOLLOW THE EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMANT OFFICIALS. IF ASKED TO EVACUATE...DO SO IMMEDIATELY. ALL FLOOD PROTECTION MEASURES MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF ROUTE 113 ABOVE THE PAWTUCKET FALLS. ALSO...PORTIONS OF ROUTE 110 AND SEVERAL HOMES AND BUSINESSES ALONG ROUTE 110 HEADING NORTH AND EAST INTO TEWKSBURY MAY BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. FOLLOW THE DIRECTION OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICALS. IF ASKED TO EVACUATE...DO SO IMMEDIATELY.

WHOA NELLIE!!!!!

Photo taken in Beverly Monday morning at high tide. Minor to moderate coastal flooding affected much of the Massachusetts coast from the very strong Nor'easter.

Satellite view of yesterday's storm. Impacts were felt from Canada all the way to Hispanola. Can you say "WHOA NELLIE?!?!?"

Been a busy couple days in the weather department...as well as the pumping out my basement department. Yep, we could hold some boat races down there. Luckily most of the belongings are up on wooden crates after last May's deluge that resulted in major flooding throughout all of New England.

This whopper of a storm has brought upwards of 5 inches of rain to the area (and counting), wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH, and flooding - lots of flooding. We have experienced coastal flooding (Beverly and Salisbury just to name a couple), river flooding, urban flooding, and my favorite one of all, Basement flooding!

This one definitely deserves a "Whoa Nellie!"

Unfortunately, our unwelcomed guest is going to stick around for another day or two before finally meandering away. In fact, ANOTHER area of low pressure is expected to develop to the SE of the initial monster of a storm, and pinwheel BACK towards New England tomorrow. Expect more rain (although not as heavy), some wet snow, and watch for the winds to pick up again tomorrow. Gusts should be 25-35 MPH, not nearly as bad as the 60MPH gusts we saw Sunday night and early Monday. However, with the ground super saturated right now, trees may be uprooted easily - so more power outages are a possibility.

The entire state of Massachusetts is currently under various flood warnings. The Merrimack is expected to flood, as well as other rivers in the Lowell area. More coastal flooding is possible at the next high tide.

We'll keep you posted.

In the meantime, the boat races are on at my place...any bets?

Today's Weather Map of impending Nor'easter. Click to enlarge.

A Nasty Nor'Easter...

Get Ready for Heavy Windswept Rain and possible Flooding


Good morning to all. The storm, as advertised for awhile now, is currently impacting the region with bouts of rain periodically mixed in with sleet and snow when the precipitation comes down hard enough. Look for this to continue throughout the day, with temperatures maxing out around 38 F. As the storm tracks closer during the evening it will likely draw in some warmer air, limiting any mixing that may occur.

Rainfall totals for the Lowell area may approach 5 INCHES by the time the storm winds down later on Monday. To give you an idea of how much rain that is, if this storm were all snow, that would be upwards of 4 FEET of snow! Yikes!

There are various weather watches and warnings currently in effect for different parts of New England - from Winter Storm Warnings for northern sections of ME, NH, and VT, to Coastal Flood Warnings on the Cape and Islands.

Heavy snow (up to two feet ) is possible in Northern New York State as well as the higher elevations of Northern New England. The large scope of the storm is also impacting Florida as we speak, with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms slicing across the state with this storm system's associated cold front. Click on the weather map at the top of the post to get a better picture of just how massive this storm is.

As of now, a Flood Watch has been issued for our area and is as follows below from the Nation Weather Service....

Flood Watch in Effect Through Monday

* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON*

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* PRIMARY THREAT REGIONS FOR ANY 5 INCH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS ARE RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM WESTERLY TO PROVIDENCE BOSTON AND ESSEX COUNTY OF NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

We'll keep you posted as new developments warrant.

Wet n Wild Weekend.....

...nope, I'm not talking about Water Country, I'm talking about our upcoming weather for the latter half of the holiday weekend. The storm system progged to develop and affect our area from Sunday into Monday is on schedule, with a period of heavy rain and strong winds possible, especially during the overnight on Sunday and into Monday morning. We could see upwards of three inches of rain from the storm, and coastal flooding remains a possibility as mentioned in previous postings.

A possible silver lining: if the storm center tracks right OVER us on Monday, we could see the rain lighten up and some breaks in cloudcover as we would be under the "dry slot" of the storm. Let's hope this scenario plays out so that the Boston Marathon isn't a complete washout.

Until then, the remainder of your Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies with a possible sprinkle or shower, with highs in the mid 40s. Saturday is the pick of the weekend, where temperatures will rebound to near seasonal levels with highs in the mid 50's and mostly sunny skies. The weather will turn downhill in a hurry for Sunday, and by Sunday evening it looks to be pretty nasty out there, continuing on through the overnight with some heavy windswept rains.

We'll have updates for you as the situation unfolds.

Wishing you all a great holiday weekend....

Snow What?!?

The National Weather Service has Cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for today....

A quick glance out your window right now won't show much in the way of snow. After a brief mix this morning, precipitation has gone over to mostly rain, with sleet mixing in from time to time. Although my earlier thinking of downgrading the snowfall predictions from some of the computer models was correct, I didn't downgrade quite far enough.

Temperatures in the region are just too warm to support any significant snowfall, although as the precipitation increases in intensity this afternoon, some snow may mix in from time to time.

For the remainder of today, look for blustery conditions, with rain and sleet. The rain and sleet may be heavy at times, especially this afternoon as a slug of precipitation moves our way from the Southwest. If it's heavy enough, it may drag down some cold air from aloft allowing some snow to mix in. Total storm accumulations look to be 0-1" of a mixture of sleet and snow, if anything at all. South of Boston, look for all rain. In New Hampshire, things are a little more complicated where a winter storm warning remains in effect for 3-6" of pasty snow, especially in Northern New England and the higher elevations. Near the Massachusetts border, look for 0-2" of sleet and snow accumulation.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 30s for the afternoon. Winds will be gusty from the east around 10mph, with gusts up to 25mph.

We will have another posting this afternoon if conditions warrant. Stay dry everyone!

I also wanted to give a warm hello to the MOODY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL in Lowell, MA, where I, along with fellow student meteorologist Chad Penney, met with the 4th grade this past Tuesday to talk about the weather. We had a great time discussing snowstorms, thunderstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes, and more! I was very impressed with the intelligence and interest of the kids....and the teachers were friendly and very helpful. Thanks for a great time, and I hope you got to learn some interesting stuff about the weather! If you are a teacher and wish to have a presentation at your school, contact me via email and we can set something up.

Also, if any of you reading this have a weather or natural science related question, send me an email by clicking on my profile name to the right.

For a complete weather update and the forecast for the impending Nor'Easter for Sunday and Monday, tune in to my forecast tomorrow morning on the "Campus Buzz" show from 9am-10am on WUML Lowell 91.5 FM

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow.....

click on map to enlarge. Rainfall predictions for the storm Sunday through Tuesday... we could see 4+ inches!

.....Oh wait, this isn't Christmas time, its Mid-April!!! I guess the ole standby "April Showers brings May flowers" isn't quite applicable yet.....Yes, that's right folks, looks like more of the wet n' sloppy white stuff is in the forecast. As a result -

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday.

A storm system beginning to die out over the Great Lakes will help to generate a new storm right near the New England coastline during the overnight tonight and the day tomorrow. Although it is not as potent as the possible storm forecast during last Saturday's posting, it looks to bring a slug of the sticky stuff to the region starting tomorrow morning and during the early afternoon.

The Lowell area will be flirting with the rain-snow-mix line as early as mid-late morning, which will help to cut down on accumulations. In addition, temperatures throughout the storm will be just at or above 32 degrees....the magical number for ice and snow. So, although the precipitation may fall heavily enough at times to bring some cold air down from aloft, anything that does fall will be falling onto a surface that is more conducive for melting than freezing. What does that mean for us? If you remember last Wednesday's/Thursday's storm, it means most of the accumulation will be on the grassy and elevated surfaces. Although the roads may get covered, they will remain mostly slushy as opposed to slick and icy. At least mother nature will be cutting us a break in that respect.

As of right now, I am forecasting a slushy 1-3 inches of compact wet snow for the Lowell area, changing to a mixture of sleet and rain during the afternoon. I know this phrase sounds like a broken record, but any deviation in the storm's track could make the difference between all snow and all rain. However, another factor that we must consider as meteorologists is climatology- the mid-April sun is (believe it or not) equivalent in strength to the sun in late August. That's why, despite a couple computer models insisting otherwise, I feel that the storm will end up more on the warm slushy 1-3 inches side of things as opposed to a moderate snowstorm with 4-8 inches. I must issue a caveat though- the models have been flip-flopping these last couple days, and each model run will give us a much better idea of how the storm will impact your day tomorrow. That being said, last minute revisions to the forecast are likely as the storm unfolds. Check back for updates. As weather forecasters, you must be able to live with the label of "flip-flopper," because sometimes that's just the way the weather in New England is.

Looking ahead, I regret to say that the sun and warm temperatures will be on sabaatical these next few days, as the stormy regime continues over our part of the world. An active jet stream will help to spawn yet another storm for Sunday and Monday, and as of right now, this one looks to be a "whopper." Windswept periods of rain and rain mixed with snow appear likely for the area from late Sunday through Monday night....

Don't shoot the messenger quite yet though. This storm looks to stick around for awhile. After developing into an intense gale off the Virginia coast, it looks to track oh-so-slowly northeastward and do a "loop-de-loop" southeast of Cape Cod. Yes, that means we'll be doing a bit of a tango with this one. So, if you have Patriot's Day off, or are going to run in the Boston Marathon, plan accordingly. We also have the possibility of:

1. Localized flooding as a saturated ground cannot hold all the rain and runoff

2. Possible coastal flooding at the time of high tide. Strong winds over a large ocean fetch, coupled with astronomically high tides yield a possible recipe for trouble.

Will and I will keep you abreast of this possible big storm as new updates become available.

So, there you have it. Snow, Rain, Wind, and possible Flooding. Hope you have a good book or two at home for these next few days. Unless of course, you're a skier. In that case, you may want to take Friday off to enjoy the fresh powder.

Ok, I'm done. I don't blame you if you're ready to "lock 'n load." Just remember, I'm only the messenger....

We'll have important updates for you on these two storms on WUML 91.5 FM starting at 7am tomorrow morning. Tune in for my important holiday weekend forecast on Campus Buzz, this Friday from 9-10am.

This is UMASS-Lowell Student Meteorologist John Webster signing off for now....

Worst Case Scenario...

GFS weather map for possible late season winter storm. Click to enlarge

...How morbid to start off a blog with "Worst Case Scenario, right?" Unfortunately, when it comes to weather, you always have to be prepared for the worst case scenario. Though I don't think we will be having a big snowstorm for the next Thursday timeframe, one of the long range computer models has hinted at that possibility. The graphic above is one of the many computer model representations that we use in order to determine what the weather will be down the road. This particular model is called the GFS or "Global Forecast System."

Although it is not always accurate 5 or so days out, I have come to rely on it for picking up signatures of possible winter storms. For example, the storm that will be passing to our east today (and giving one heck of a snowstorm to Canada) was forecast to develop by this model about 10 days in advance! However, these computer models of the atmosphere have their flaws as well. They can be wrong in their location in predicting the storm, or wrong in the storms intensity, or wrong in that a storm may not develop at all! Whew! So many possibilities..... That's where we come in.

So what does all this technical mumbo-jumbo mean for us? Well, it looks like a storm will develop around sometime next Thursday, and affect the area with either rain or wet snow. If the storms actual track is further south and east than forecast, it could be more of a snow event. If the storm tracks further west and north, bringing with it some warmer air, we could just see rain. A difference of 50 miles makes all the difference in the world with these winter storms, and a 50 mile error 5 days in advance is a drop in the bucket for the computer models, but makes a big difference for us.

We will continue to monitor the different computer model outputs, and have daily updates for you on WUML 91.5 FM.

In the meantime, the seasonably cold weather will continue, with clouds increasing for your Saturday compliments of the strong ocean storm passing to our east. We may see a sprinkle or flurry from it, but not much more. On the backside of this storm, winds will turn NW and be rather gusty for Easter Sunday, ushering in some even cooler air.

Again, if you have any questions, click on my name to the right and send me an email. Any comments, feel free to leave them below!

Make sure to tune in 7-9am Monday-Thursday for updates with Will Sheridan, and I will have your complete forecast (and possibly more) every Friday morning on Campus Buzz from 9-10 am on WUML Lowell 91.5 FM.

For all those celebrating, have a great Easter!

radar image of Wed. snows. Try clicking to start looping

Spring in New England....

....you gotta love it. Wednesday afternoon and night saw a late season coastal storm bring more of the pasty white stuff to the region. The trees starting to bud were no doubt confused,

as were probably some of you. But, this is New England!

Before I continue on, I should introduce myself. My name is John Webster, and I am a student meteorologist at Umass Lowell. I have recently joined WUML 91.5 FM, and provide the forecast during Friday's "Campus Buzz" show from 9am-10am. We hope to expand our programming with WUML to include some segments of the weather that interest YOU. Anything you're curious about? Something you always wanted to know about the weather, but didn't know who to ask? You've come to the right place. Contact me by clicking on my name to the right to access my profile, and send me an email. Your weather question (and answer) could be read on the air....

Back to Lowell Weather...

Typically in the month of April, our area receives 3 inches or so of snowfall...we have already passed that benchmark with the heavy wet "cement" like snow that made brushing off your car a little more of a challenge than usual. Count your blessings though - just north of us in New Hampshire, they got blasted with up to 16 inches of the white stuff (Ossippee NH) with many downed tree limbs and power outages due to the heavy wet snow.

April 1st, 1997 was even worse. We have just passed the 10 year anniversary of the "April Fool's" Blizzard, which socked the region with upwards of 2 FEET of snow. Snowfall rates of 3 inches and hour and lightening strikes were common, and Boston set a 24 hour snowfall record, with 25.4 inches falling during that storm!! Bet you're glad you didn't wake up to that this morning...

Looking ahead, our below average temperatures will continue, as we have entered a distinctively winter-like pattern. This will keep daytime highs down into the mid 40s for much of the upcoming Easter Weekend. Our little furry friend may have to bundle up as he delivers all those tasty chocolate goodies to the kids. No storms look to affect the region through the weekend, which is good news, although we will have a rather close call with a coastal gale passing to our east Saturday night. Right now, it appears it may throw some clouds our way, but no heavy precipitation is expected. If things change, we will be sure to update you.

Long range models, however, are hinting at the possibility of some increased storminess by the middle of next week.... could Old Man Winter have one more in store for us?

We'll keep you posted.

Forecast for 4/3 4/4 4/5, 2007:
Tuesday: A chance of rain or drizzle. Areas of fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Northeast wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 9pm and midnight, then rain and sleet likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind between 7 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Wednesday: Periods of rain and sleet. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 36. East wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Periods of rain, mixing with snow after 3am. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 32. North wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Thursday: Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.