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Possible snow totals through tomorrow night for a short-duration but possibly heavy snow event. Click to enlarge.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MASSACHUSETTS NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
1 day left of the semester, and I still have a homework set and an exam, both tomorrow. This isn't counting the projects and finals I have starting next week. Throw into the mix two possible big winter storms, and things sure are busy around here!
Although I should currently be finishing up my advanced dynamics homework (gotta love homework due on the last day) I felt compelled to throw in a blog entry, being that we have some important weather possibly on the horizon.
Storm 1 happens tomorrow from ~2pm and ending ~9 pm. This storm is actually rather weak, and a fast mover. However, local dynamics with the system favor a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow over the region. In fact, models have been trending to steadily increase precipitation amounts here. That being said, yesterday at this time most of the computer models gave us NO SNOW for tomorrow. Today they are churning out close to a foot for parts of southern Massachusetts. Quite the little 24 hour turnaround there.
Will they flip-flop again, like Mitt Romney on a hot day? We will know much better by tomorrow morning. However, one of the computer models has been rather steady in predicting this heavy slug of snow, and other models have been trending toward it. My current thinking is that the above snowfall map will verify.
Check out the maps below to see what some of the models are churning out for precipitation. It will be cold here for the event, so keep in mind that the water to snowfall ratio for us tomorrow will be about 1:15, meaning that .5 inches of liquid equivalent would equal about 7-8 inches of snow......
Computer model graphic showing liquid water possible from tomorrow's storm.
A 3 hour precipitation total, using high resolution computer model. If this pans out tomorrow afternoon, southern Massachusetts could see snowfall rates of 1-3 inches an HOUR!After a break Friday and Saturday, all attention will shift to a possible major coastal storm which looks to form near the Carolinas on Saturday and move up the coast towards New England. The potential exists for a significant amount of snow from this event. Where it stays all snow, we could see over a foot. Gusty NE winds and beach erosion are possible as well.
However, this event is still days away, and computer models have been known to change their minds pretty late in the game. They have been rather consistent with this storm though, with minor differences in storm track. Earlier model runs in the week showed a MUCH stronger storm (we're talking possible blizzard conditions) but they have been steadily trending towards a weaker scenario. The storm still looks to be potent though.
Check out my nifty home-made graphic below to get a sense of the main players for Sunday's storm.
A track closer to the coast would mean a snow to mix to possibly rain scenario for Lowell. If the storm stays further out to sea, we would remain all snow. In addition, there is ample moisture in the tropics, partially thanks to dissipating sub-tropical storm Olga. If the storm is able to tap into that moisture sooner than currently predicted, we could be in for a wild Sunday!
The above is a map of available moisture at lower-mid levels of the atmosphere as of Saturday afternoon. Note the plume of warm, moist tropical air extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic.
Current precipitation output for the Sunday storm. Liquid equivalent amounts are in excess of 1" for our area, meaning that the potential exists for some heavy snows. Again, note the plume of heavy moisture off the coast which remains separate from the main storm system. If they join forces, look out!So in a nutshell, quick 6 hour or so burst of moderate to heavy snows tomorrow afternoon, with the highest amounts south of the Mass Pike. The snow could come down heavily, so you may want to plan your commute accordingly. If this pans out, tomorrow's commute will be a mess.
We will have future updates on tomorrow's storm and the possible weekend Nor'Easter as we draw closer to the events. Make sure to check back for updates! And now for the forecast.....
Lowell Regional Forecast
Tonight: Clear and cold. Low 20.
Thursday: WINTER STORM WATCH. Clear to start, with rapidly increasing clouds. Snow, possibly heavy, likely after 3 pm. High near 27.
Thursday Night: Snow winds down around 9-10pm. Total storm accumulation of 4"-8". Low 20.
Friday: Clearing and warmer. High near 38.
Saturday: Becoming cloudy. Light snow possible by afternoon. High 32.
Extended Outlook
Sunday: Cloudy with snow, possibly changing to a wintry mix. The snow could be heavy at times. High 33.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s.
For WUML 91.5 FM this is WUML weather director and UMass Lowell student meteorologist John Webster.
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