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Living in New England is one of the most challenging, and interesting, places to live if you are in the business of forecasting the weather. Let's face it - we have it all.....springtime rains/floods, summer heat waves and thunderstorms, an occasional tropical system, and finally winter storms.
Winter storms are one of the most difficult weather features to forecast. Not only do we need to worry about storm intensity, but we obsess over the potential track of the storm. Why all this scrutiny? It all boils down to precipitation type - a shift in the storm track of 50 miles can make the difference between a rainstorm and a whopper of a snowstorm. To complicate matters, a storm track shift of 50 miles is a drop in the bucket when attempting to forecast from several days in advance.
Well, now that we have THAT out of the way, let's talk about how things look to play out at this stage in the game. We saw a cold front move through New England today accompanied by some scattered showers. Temperatures will be cooler by tomorrow, and downright cold by Saturday as arctic air begins to spill south out of Canada. In the meantime, a storm will start to organize out west over the 4-corners region by tomorrow night, and start heading into the Plains. Keep in mind, this system hasn't even formed yet.
As the storm moves northeast, it will be located over the eastern Great Lakes by late Sunday. Now comes the tricky part.
Computer models have been flopping like presidential candidates in the hot seat the last couple days... the main questions being if a secondary storm will develop over the Atlantic, where does it develop, and how intense does it get? I can say with confidence that we will see a secondary storm develop, however the details of exactly where and how quickly it intensifies are still up in the air.Check out one of the models below to see the latest thinking on where the secondary storm will start to spin up.
Computer model prediction for 7 AM Monday morning, with a secondary storm beginning to form very close to Cape Cod. Click to enlarge.
Computer model prediction for 1 PM Monday, showing most of the precipitation to our north by this time. Click to enlarge. Ahead of the main low pressure over the Great Lakes, moisture will spread east in advance of the system, and we will likely see light snow overspread the area by late Sunday afternoon or evening.
As the secondary coastal low starts to form Sunday night, the energy from the primary storm will transfer to the coast. The new low pressure system will begin to intensify rapidly as it moves north.
However, current thinking is that the secondary low will form very near Cape Cod, and not get stronger until it is north of us in the Gulf of Maine. What does this mean for us? Right now, it looks like the heavy snows will fall in northern New England, and not in our neck of the woods. Warmer air will likely infiltrate the region from the Atlantic with winds being due east with the storm position near Cape Cod.
So, to sum it up, we probably start as light snow Sunday evening, mix with sleet and rain late Sunday night/early Monday, and then switch over to just plain old rain during the day on Monday. We could see the precipitation end as some light snow or flurries as the storm blows up east of Maine, and drags down colder air via strong northerly winds.
Below is a graphic based on the latest computer models depicting the most likely result of the Sunday/Monday event.
Tentative prediction for track of the upcoming storm, with a weak Low forming near Cape Cod and intensifying in the Gulf of Maine. To the north of the white line, all snow is likely from the event, with heavy amounts possible in ski country and Down east Maine. Between the green and white line, mixing appears likely with light snow accumulations possible. To the south, a quick period of snow to start followed by mostly rain is the best guess at this time.
Pretty far in advance, but this could be your wakin'-up-weather for next Monday. Again, conditions could be very different at that time depending on the actual track of the storm.
Now, I must issue this caveat - this storm is still over 3 days away, and much can change during that time-frame. As of now, it looks like Lowell may get a slushy 1-3 inches of snow before the change over to rain late Sunday night/early Monday. HOWEVER - if the storm forms further southeast and intensifies more rapidly, we could be looking at a colder, snowier scenario. If it is weaker and further north, we would be looking at more of a rain event.
Check back for important updates. The WUML weather team will be tracking the progress of the system closely. Details will become clearer as we draw closer to Sunday.
And now for the forecast......
Tonight: Partly cloudy and brisk. Low 26. West winds 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy. Cooler, with highs near 42. NW winds 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph possible through early afternoon.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 23.
Saturday: Bundle up! Mostly sunny, windy, and seasonably cold. High 33. NW winds around 15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph possible.
Sunday: Increasing cloudiness, with light snow possible after dark. High 33.
Sunday Night: Light snow mixing with sleet and rain, changing to all rain by early morning. Low near 29.
Monday: Morning rain tapering off by mid-afternoon. The precipitation could end as light snow or flurries. High 40.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s.
For WUML Lowell 91.5 FM this is WUML weather director and UMass Lowell student meteorologist John Webster. Make sure to check back tomorrow for an important update!
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