Here Comes Noel!

WUML/Umass Lowell Weather Team is on Alert Mode!

Newest track for Noel issued by the National Hurricane Center. Click to enlarge.

One of the many forecast models I use to track these tropical systems.... the newest model run has the storm VERY close to the Cape by Saturday, throwing windswept heavy rains over eastern Massachusetts.

Right now, Noel is still located to the east of Florida, and is still packing sustained winds of 60 mph.

A Satellite view of the storm shows the very cold cloud tops in red. The center of the storm is located to the SW of the area of deepest convection/thunderstorms.

Forecast winds model shows gusts up to 70mph possible on the Cape.

Yet another model showing strong winds which may affect the region on Saturday, with the center of the storm located just to the east of Cape Cod.

Yesterday, many of the forecast computer models were calling for Noel to pass out to sea and not affect New England. Since then, the National Weather Service has drastically changed their thinking for Saturday, bringing the storm closer to the coast. Although I take pride in the fact that my forecast for Saturday was to have Noel closer to us while the NWS called for sunny conditions, it now appears that even I may have under-done the forecast.

Some of the newer computer model runs are showing Noel making a dangerously close pass to Cape Cod by Saturday. I have included a couple snapshots of these computer models above so that you too can see the data that I am looking at.

If this scenario plays out, Saturday could feature Tropical Storm Conditions over much of eastern Massachusetts. Winds could be sustained over Cape Cod at 50 mph, with gusts up to 70! Heavy windswept rain bands would be moving in off the ocean, giving the region a dousing.

Because of these recent trends, the National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch for eastern Massachusetts for Saturday.

ANY deviation in the projected track of the storm could make a huge difference in the impacts felt here in Lowell. If the storm tracks close to the Cape, we could see wind gusts of up to 50 mph with heavy wind-driven rains, and possible wind damage. If the storm tracks further out to sea, our effects would be much less.

Stay tuned for the latest updates as they become available. I will most likely be on the Sunrise morning show tomorrow morning to have a live update on this possible significant weather event.

John Webster