Wintry Mess Likely for Sunday Night and Monday

Exact Storm Track to Determine Precipitation Type

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Current enhanced infared satellite view. The storm which will begin to affect us Sunday night is currently taking shape out west, as evidenced by the higher cloud tops in yellow and orange. Click to enlarge.

Before the storm pays us a visit, it will be impacting much of the country. This is the season's first major winter storm event for the United States. Detailed model analysis, showing various computer model projections for the path and location of Monday's storm. The different colors represent different forecast times, and the many symbols indicate where different computer models put the center of the low pressure system for each timeframe. Click to enlarge.
If the last graphic was confusing, this one should be better. Simplified projection on the location and path of the storm system traversing the country which will affect us Sunday night and Monday. Note the dot to the southeast of Long Island, indicating where the secondary coastal low is now forecast to develop. Click to enlarge.
Total precipitation for the upcoming storm could exceed 1.25 "of liquid water equivalent.... If it were ALL snow, that would be about a foot!


Temperatures will take the plunge the next couple days, as arctic air begins to move south out of Canada. A cold front passing the region this evening will make sure of that.


Although the weather Saturday will be quiet - the proverbial "calm before the storm," it will get downright FRIGID tomorrow night. Overnight lows will be just above 10 degrees, so make sure to bundle up if you plan on hitting the town tomorrow night.


All this cold air sets the stage for Sunday and Monday. A low pressure system will approach us from the west on Sunday, and will be located over the Great Lakes by Sunday evening. Snow will likely begin to overspread the area in advance of the approaching system sometime early Sunday night.


By early Monday morning, a secondary coastal storm will begin to spin up in the Atlantic. Yesterday, model consensus was that this storm would form near Cape Cod, and track northeastward into the Gulf of Maine, intensifying as it moved away. Today, computer models have begun to shift the low pressure formation further south and west, just off the coast of Long Island. Refer to the graphics above for a good indication of where the storm looks to get going.


What does this mean for us? It could indicate that the colder air may be tougher to scour out than originally thought, and it could provide us with more moisture as the storm's dry slot will not form over the region.


However, east winds off the warmer waters of the Atlantic will be a big player in this system. Right now, it does appear that warmer air will work into the middle layers of the atmosphere for a decent portion of the storm, which would mean we would see a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain - especially late Sunday night and early Monday.


By Monday afternoon, the precipitation could change to all snow as colder air wraps into the system from the north. However, the precipitation will be starting to wind down at this point, so I expect light accumulations from the backlash.


The big question everyone wants to know is HOW MUCH WILL WE GET?
Keep in mind that this event won't be over until Monday night, and its only Friday, so we are still a ways out. My best guess at this point would be 2-4 inches of heavy, sloppy, wet snow/sleet accumulating through Monday night. You know, the cement-like stuff that's oh-so-fun to shovel....


However, one of the computer models has been keeping the system further south, and our area colder for the storm. If this scenario verifies, our totals could be more in the 4-8" range. I think it's too early to make that prediction just now, but if the models start to converge on a colder solution tomorrow, accumulations may need to be increased for the Lowell area.


Make sure to check back tomorrow for an all important update. And now here's the forecast......

Lowell Regional Forecast

Tonight: Mostly clear and cold. Low 24.


Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold. High near 31. Gusty NW winds at 10-20 mph will make it feel like it's upper teens to low 20's.


Saturday Night: Clear and Frigid. Lows near 12.


Sunday: Clear to start, becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. High 33.


Sunday Night: Cloudy, with light snow possible by evening. Precipitation will become steadier and heavier during the overnight. Snow may mix with and change to sleet and rain, especially towards morning. Low 26.


Monday: Morning communte could be a mess. Mixed bag of wet snow, sleet, and rain during the morning, ending as a period of light snow during the afternoon. High 35.


Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 34.



For WUML Lowell 91.5 Fm, this is WUML weather director and student meteorologist John Webster urging you to check back for an important update tomorrow.


Have a great weekend everyone!