NOEL BEGINNING TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON UNTIL 11 PM

STORM DEATH TOLL UP TO 124

Surfers enjoy waves off the Florida coast, courtesy of Noel.

Current satellite image of Noel as it tracks northward.

Current radar shows bands from the storm pinwheeling in off the ocean as the storm gets closer to New England. Rain should overspread the region by noon.

Want to see Noel in action? Follow this link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-rgb.html

Nasty Nor'Easter Noel

Who would have thought that the deadliest hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season would strike in late October/early November? After pummelling the Carribean with wind, rain, and waves for a few days, Noel is currently on our doorstep and posied to make this Saturday a wet and wild one.

As we speak, Nantucket is getting pounded with heavy rain, sustained winds of 35 mph, and gusts over 50 mph. A coastal flood warning has been issued for Cape and Islands as stiff onshore northerly winds coupled with a slight storm surge may cause moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide. The heavy rains coupled with winds gusting over hurricane force at times could down many trees, as the trees cannot hold root in the soggy ground. New model data indicates that wind gusts over the Cape and Islands could approach 90 mph this afternoon - just shy of category 2 hurricane status. If this materializes, we could see significant structural damage to buildings over the Cape in addition to downed trees and power outages.

As the storm tracks north later today, the wind and rain will spread inland. Expect rain to overspread the area by noon, and last until about 10 pm this evening. The northward progress of Noel has been slower than originally anticipated, and this could cause the nasty conditions to stick around Massachusetts for longer than previously thought. We will be tracking the progress of the storm all day.

Although the Cape and Islands could see hurricane force wind gusts, I do not anticipate these conditions to impact Lowell. For this storm, the further away you go from the Cape, the lesser the impacts will be.

For Boston metro and points south and east, winds could gust in excess of 60 mph this afternoon, with heavy downpours. There could even be a rumble of thunder.

Further north and west, the Merrimack Valley and greater Lowell region will likely see sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts up to 50. Coupled with a quick slug of heavy rainfall, these winds could still be strong enough to bring down some branches and trees, especially since many leaves still remain on the trees due to our very warm October (4th warmest in many regions). The leaves will act almost like a sail, helping to catch the force of the wind and bring the trees and branches down.

And if NOEL isn't enough to worry about, Daylight Savings Time ends this weekend, so don't forget to turn your clocks back tonight..... if you still have power, that is.

And now for the detailed Lowell Regional Forecast:

Today: Noel makes it's closest pass. Rain will overspread the area by noon, with conditions deteriorating as the day goes on. Crunch time : 3-8 pm.

Heavy rains (1-3 inches), and sustained winds of 30 mph. Northeast Winds could gust up to 50 mph or higher at times. A HIGH WIND WARNING remains in effect from noon until 11 pm. Afternoon highs in the upper 40s.

Tonight: North winds shifting to the NW at 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph early, then diminishing as the storm moves away. Heavy downpours likely, especially before midnight. High wind warning remains in effect until 11 pm. Lows near 35. * Daylight Savings Time Ends*

Sunday: Storm's gone, but still breezy in it's wake. Becoming mostly sunny, with highs topping out in the upper 50s. NW winds shifting West at 10-15 mph, and could still gust up to 30 mph.

Sunday Night: Winds from Noel are finally gone. Mostly clear and chilly. Patchy frost possible. Lows near 32.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy. High 55.

Extended Outlook

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely as a cold front approaches from the west. High again 55.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and cooler. Highs in the upper 40s.

WUML and the staff of Umass Lowell meteorologists will be tracking the storm all day. Stay tuned for important updates.

This is WUML weather director and Umass Lowell student meteorologist John Webster.

Here Comes Noel!

WUML/Umass Lowell Weather Team is on Alert Mode!

Newest track for Noel issued by the National Hurricane Center. Click to enlarge.

One of the many forecast models I use to track these tropical systems.... the newest model run has the storm VERY close to the Cape by Saturday, throwing windswept heavy rains over eastern Massachusetts.

Right now, Noel is still located to the east of Florida, and is still packing sustained winds of 60 mph.

A Satellite view of the storm shows the very cold cloud tops in red. The center of the storm is located to the SW of the area of deepest convection/thunderstorms.

Forecast winds model shows gusts up to 70mph possible on the Cape.

Yet another model showing strong winds which may affect the region on Saturday, with the center of the storm located just to the east of Cape Cod.

Yesterday, many of the forecast computer models were calling for Noel to pass out to sea and not affect New England. Since then, the National Weather Service has drastically changed their thinking for Saturday, bringing the storm closer to the coast. Although I take pride in the fact that my forecast for Saturday was to have Noel closer to us while the NWS called for sunny conditions, it now appears that even I may have under-done the forecast.

Some of the newer computer model runs are showing Noel making a dangerously close pass to Cape Cod by Saturday. I have included a couple snapshots of these computer models above so that you too can see the data that I am looking at.

If this scenario plays out, Saturday could feature Tropical Storm Conditions over much of eastern Massachusetts. Winds could be sustained over Cape Cod at 50 mph, with gusts up to 70! Heavy windswept rain bands would be moving in off the ocean, giving the region a dousing.

Because of these recent trends, the National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch for eastern Massachusetts for Saturday.

ANY deviation in the projected track of the storm could make a huge difference in the impacts felt here in Lowell. If the storm tracks close to the Cape, we could see wind gusts of up to 50 mph with heavy wind-driven rains, and possible wind damage. If the storm tracks further out to sea, our effects would be much less.

Stay tuned for the latest updates as they become available. I will most likely be on the Sunrise morning show tomorrow morning to have a live update on this possible significant weather event.

John Webster